Alienhits loves... The Oscars!

Best Picture
I would have voted for Doubt, had it been nominated, or even The Dark Knight. Given the five nominees--I've seen all of them--I’d go for Milk. It was the most powerful story of the five and the most relevant, with some incredible acting. The Reader’s second, followed by Frost/Nixon, followed by Benjamin Button and then Slumdog Millionaire--a rather overrated movie if you ask me. Generally I go with what movie affects me the most and has the most to say. Milk ticked off both of those boxes.
Should Win: Milk
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor
This is a tough race this year. I liked The Wrestler and Mickey Rourke’s performance in it, but I felt like the character wasn’t too far off from the actor in that movie. Contrastingly, Sean Penn’s electric performance in Milk couldn’t have been farther from Penn himself. It completely made that movie, and elevated it from a stale biopic (like Ray was a couple of years ago). Frank Langella also gets props for Frost/Nixon, but it’s not at the same level as Penn’s performance in my opinion.
Should Win: Sean Penn
Will Win: Sean Penn

Best Actress
I’m a huge Streep fan and a big fan of Doubt in general, so Meryl just slightly edges out Kate Winslet for me on this one. Kate was great in the Reader and it was definitely a difficult role to play, but Doubt would have been much less without Meryl. To me, she made that movie. Melissa Leo was by far the best thing about Frozen River, and I wouldn’t necessarily mind her winning either, but the movie didn’t strike me as much as Doubt or the Reader did.
Should Win: Meryl Streep
Will Win: Kate Winslet

Best Supporting Actor
This is sorta a no-brainer. Heath Ledger’s performance in the Dark Knight made that movie what it was. None of the other nominees except Philip Seymour Hoffman (whose really much more of a lead than a supporting role) come close.
Should Win: Heath Ledger
Will Win: Heath Ledger

Best Supporting Actress
I think this category is the best chance for Doubt to win an award with Viola Davis’s striking performance. If it were up to me, though, I’d actually give the edge to Amy Adams, who gave a truly supporting performance and (at least for me) portrayed the emotional core of the film. It was an understated, brilliant and necessary role. A pity she’ll never win.
Should Win: Amy Adams
Will Win: Penelope Cruz or Viola Davis

Best Director
I actually wouldn’t mind seen either Danny Boyle or Gus Van Sant pick this up. Both are directors I’ve admired in the past and, although Slumdog Millionaire is far from Boyle’s best work, it would be nice to see him pick up a trophy for past glories. Van Sant’s direction in Milk is the more understated of the two, but equally compelling. I actually can’t decide between the two of them, though I think Boyle‘s pretty much guaranteed to go home with the award.
Should Win: Danny Boyle or Gus Van Sant
Will Win: Danny Boyle