2014 Oscars Forecast

This has been a weird Oscar season for me. I mean, I've seen over half of the main contenders and enjoyed them all to at least a certain extent, but I'm having a hard time mustering up a lot of passion for this year's films. There is no Hugo or Les Miserables or There Will Be Blood that really appeals to my taste for sweeping, at times fantastical epics. In fact, my favorite film of the bunch is one of the smallest. Also, the awards seem like they've been spaced so far away from all the other awards ceremonies this year... so much so that they seem almost an afterthought when they should be the main course. Still, it's a competitive year, at least in some categories, and that's not something we see very often. Here are my picks for what will probably win, and what I'd personally choose.

Best Picture
Will Win: 12 Years A Slave
I'm giving this the edge to Gravity, but only slightly. I feel like there's just more to celebrate here. More actors, more historical relevance, more meaty drama. Gravity, for all its technical marvels, has gotten some (deserved, in my opinion) criticism for its writing. 12 Years A Slave feels more important in a lot of ways, even if it wasn't much of a hit.
My Choice: Dallas Buyer's Club
My favorite of the bunch, even if I realize that as a movie it's probably not as well-made as others in the category. But, while the others left my emotions cold to some degree or another, this was the film I couldn't stop thinking about days after I'd seen it. Luckily, I think it will clean up in the acting categories.

Best Director
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
My Choice: Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
I've got a match on this one, as I feel like the direction was probably the best part of Gravity and totally deserves the award. That's not to mention all the great work Cuaron's done in the past, which should help his chances as well. I think it'll be a split year, and this will be the Academy's way of honoring both of the frontrunner films.

Best Actor
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
My Choice: Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
My pick lines up again. You just can't discount the work he did in Dallas Buyers Club, even if his competition in this category is also very strong. I feel like he gets this based not only on this performance, which was riveting, but on all of his performances in the past year or two. He's clearly having a creative renaissance, and I'm as surprised to be writing that as anyone.

Best Actress
Will Win: Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
All signs point to Blanchett. I haven't seen the movie, so I can't really comment here. I'm solely basing this on the precursors.
My Choice: Amy Adams - American Hustle
This is another one where I just think she deserves it based on all the amazing work she's done over the past few years. Plus, to me she was the revelation in American Hustle, playing against type in a role that was pretty spellbinding to watch.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
My Choice: Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
He'd better win! His was one of my favorite performances of the year -- top two if not number one. The emotional heart of the movie, for sure.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
My Choice: Lupita Nyong'o
Jennifer Lawrence could easily steal it from her (just as easily as she stole every scene of American Hustle that she was in), but I can't help but feel that this is the performance most deserving of the award. Like Leto, she was tasked with carrying the emotional core of her movie and did an absolutely breathtaking job.

As you can see, my choices are lining up pretty closely to what I think will actually happen. If there are going to be surprises, I'd say they are most likely going to pop up in the Supporting Actress, Director, Picture and maybe Actor categories.