2014 Oscars Forecast

This has been a weird Oscar season for me. I mean, I've seen over half of the main contenders and enjoyed them all to at least a certain extent, but I'm having a hard time mustering up a lot of passion for this year's films. There is no Hugo or Les Miserables or There Will Be Blood that really appeals to my taste for sweeping, at times fantastical epics. In fact, my favorite film of the bunch is one of the smallest. Also, the awards seem like they've been spaced so far away from all the other awards ceremonies this year... so much so that they seem almost an afterthought when they should be the main course. Still, it's a competitive year, at least in some categories, and that's not something we see very often. Here are my picks for what will probably win, and what I'd personally choose.

Best Picture
Will Win: 12 Years A Slave
I'm giving this the edge to Gravity, but only slightly. I feel like there's just more to celebrate here. More actors, more historical relevance, more meaty drama. Gravity, for all its technical marvels, has gotten some (deserved, in my opinion) criticism for its writing. 12 Years A Slave feels more important in a lot of ways, even if it wasn't much of a hit.
My Choice: Dallas Buyer's Club
My favorite of the bunch, even if I realize that as a movie it's probably not as well-made as others in the category. But, while the others left my emotions cold to some degree or another, this was the film I couldn't stop thinking about days after I'd seen it. Luckily, I think it will clean up in the acting categories.

Best Director
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
My Choice: Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
I've got a match on this one, as I feel like the direction was probably the best part of Gravity and totally deserves the award. That's not to mention all the great work Cuaron's done in the past, which should help his chances as well. I think it'll be a split year, and this will be the Academy's way of honoring both of the frontrunner films.

Best Actor
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
My Choice: Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
My pick lines up again. You just can't discount the work he did in Dallas Buyers Club, even if his competition in this category is also very strong. I feel like he gets this based not only on this performance, which was riveting, but on all of his performances in the past year or two. He's clearly having a creative renaissance, and I'm as surprised to be writing that as anyone.

Best Actress
Will Win: Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
All signs point to Blanchett. I haven't seen the movie, so I can't really comment here. I'm solely basing this on the precursors.
My Choice: Amy Adams - American Hustle
This is another one where I just think she deserves it based on all the amazing work she's done over the past few years. Plus, to me she was the revelation in American Hustle, playing against type in a role that was pretty spellbinding to watch.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
My Choice: Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
He'd better win! His was one of my favorite performances of the year -- top two if not number one. The emotional heart of the movie, for sure.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
My Choice: Lupita Nyong'o
Jennifer Lawrence could easily steal it from her (just as easily as she stole every scene of American Hustle that she was in), but I can't help but feel that this is the performance most deserving of the award. Like Leto, she was tasked with carrying the emotional core of her movie and did an absolutely breathtaking job.

As you can see, my choices are lining up pretty closely to what I think will actually happen. If there are going to be surprises, I'd say they are most likely going to pop up in the Supporting Actress, Director, Picture and maybe Actor categories.

A Look at the 2012 Academy Awards

As usual, I'm a complete nut when it comes to the Oscars. I try to see every nominated movie and definitely have my opinions. This year, having seen all the nine Best Picture nominees, I can safely rank them from favorite to least:

1. Hugo
(huge gap)
2. War Horse
3. The Help
4. Midnight In Paris
5. The Artist
(big gap again)
6. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
(can appreciate elements of the craft, but the movie wasn't for me)
7. Tree Of Life
8. The Descendants
9. Moneyball

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: The Artist
There's just no stopping its momentum. It doesn't matter that it hasn't been embraced by the public or that it's too slight or forgettable. It's been the frontrunner ever since it came out. The novelty hasn't seemed to fade. I can't say it's a bad movie at all (I actually really enjoyed it)... just not the best picture of the year.
Should Win: Hugo
Far and away the best picture of the year, it does all the Artist wants to do but on a deeper, more emotionally cathartic way. Even if you stripped away the excellent story and performances, the movie is simply gorgeous to look at. It's a technical marvel in every way but retains the feeling of a classic fable. There's a reason it reaped the most nominations this year.

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Jean Dujardin
I think the Artist love will carry over to this category, though it'll be close between him and Clooney.
Should Win: Demián Bichir
Though I haven't seen his movie yet, I was delighted over Bichir's nomination and this is one upset that I'd love to see, if only for his body of work.

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Viola Davis
It's going to be close between her and Meryl Streep. I'm a massive fan of both of them, but Davis was in the better movie and is due to win.
Should Win: Viola Davis
Again, though Streep was amazing, Davis had the better movie. The real question here is, why was Tilda Swinton snubbed for her unforgettable performance in We Need To Talk About Kevin?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Christopher Plummer
He's won everything so far. I don't see that changing.
Should Win: Christopher Plummer
I say this because I really have no stakes in this race. I've only seen two of the five nominated performances and wasn't particularly moved by either, so I'm going with the consensus.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Octavia Spencer
The Help is going to dominate the acting categories, and rightfully so. She's won this award in pretty much every awards show so far this year.
Should Win: Octavia Spencer
Though I'm a big fan of both Janet McTeer and Berenice Bejo's performances, Spencer's was the most memorable.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Michel Hanazavicius
The novelty of the Artist will most likely carry him to a victory, though there are far more deserving nominees.
Should Win: Martin Scorsese
Again, best movie of the year. But even beyond that, the skill and knowledge it took to direct on such an epic scale (with 3d, to boot), makes this the easy standout in the category. I'd love an upset here. And it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

Oscars 2011 Round-Up

Best Picture
It’s been a strong year for Oscar-nominated movies (less strong for movies in general). I’ve seen all ten, and there are at least half of them that I wouldn’t mind seeing get the prize. I loved The Fighter, Black Swan, The King’s Speech, Inception, Toy Story 3 and True Grit. If I had to pick one, I’d give the slight edge to The Fighter, which is odd because it was the one I was least looking forward to seeing initially. Of all the ten nominees, it was the most affecting (followed closely by The King’s Speech). I found The Social Network to be overrated, Winter’s Bone and The Kids Are Alright underwhelming, and 127 Hours quite good, but not as good as my top six.
Should Win: The Fighter
Will Win: The King’s Speech

Best Actor
It’s Colin Firth all the way with this one. I loved Jeff Bridges and James Franco as well, but Firth absolutely disappeared into his role. I’d say this is the surest bet for Oscars 2011.
Should Win: Colin Firth
Will Win: Colin Firth

Best Actress
I find it amazing that Annette Bening has become a co-frontrunner for this. Sure, she was good, but Natalie Portman was jaw-droopingly good in Black Swan. Without her, I’m not sure that movie would have worked.
Should Win: Natalie Portman
Will Win: Natalie Portman

Best Supporting Actor
Another no-brainer for me. Part of the reason why I loved The Fighter so much was Christian Bale’s ridiculously un-Christian Bale performance. Like Firth, he just disappeared into this character and really became the focal point of the movie, despite being a supporting character. Geoffrey Rush is a close second, though. He was a huge highlight in The King’s Speech.
Should Win: Christian Bale
Will Win: Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress
This is a really tough one for me. I would honestly be happy with any of the nominees (except Jacki Weaver, but that’s only because I haven’t seen the movie). I’ve had a lot of love for Carter, Adams and Leo for some time, and each had amazing years. But then there’s Hailee Steinfeld, who absolutely made True Grit. Aargh… I’m gonna go with Adams on this, just because I think she’s overdue.
Should Win: Amy Adams
Will Win: Melissa Leo

Best Director
Oh god, Darren Aronofsky all the way (though he’ll never get it). I wish Chris Nolan had been nominated. I’d also be happy with the Coen Brothers, but they’ve won too recently. I think there will be a split between picture and director this year.
Should Win: Darren Aronofsky
Will Win: Davind Fincher